Short Running Title: Distributions of Surfers’ Paths through the WWW

Surfing the World Wide Web (WWW) involves traversing hyperlink connections among documents. The ability to predict surfing patterns could solve many problems facing producers and consumers of WWW content. We analyzed WWW server logs for a WWW site, collected over ten days, to compare different path reconstruction methods and to investigate how past surfing behavior predicts future surfing choices. Since log files do not explicitly contain user paths, various methods have evolved to reconstruct user paths. Session times, number of clicks per visit, and Levenshtein Distance analyses were performed to show the impact of various reconstruction methods. Different methods for measuring surfing patterns were also compared. Markov model approximations were used to model the probability of users choosing links conditional on past surfing paths. Information-theoretic (entropy) measurements suggest that information is gained by using longer paths to estimate the conditional probability of link choice given surf path. The improvements diminish, however, as one increases the length of path beyond one. Information-theoretic (Total Divergence to the Average entropy) measurements suggest that the conditional probabilities of link choice given surf path are more stable over time for shorter paths than longer paths. Direct examination of the accuracy of the conditional probability models in predicting test data also suggests that shorter paths yield more stable models and can be estimated reliably with less data than longer paths.